Nifty Weekly Update: Eighth Straight Weekly Fall (October 2026)

The Nifty 50 fell 3.11% this week. That is its eighth weekly decline in a row and the longest losing run in 25 years, according to Zerodha’s Aftermarket Report. The index closed Thursday’s session at 22,421.95. Markets were shut on Friday 2 October for Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti, so Thursday was the last trading session of the week.

If you opened your mutual fund app this week and saw red, a lot of investors did the same. This update lays out what moved, which sectors held up, where foreign and domestic money went, and what to watch next week. It sticks to the data and keeps the language plain.

This week at a glance

How the Nifty moved this week

The week was weak from start to finish, and Thursday captured the mood. The Nifty opened 76 points lower at 22,544, tracking soft global cues and oil prices that stayed high. It slid below 22,500 after noon and touched an intraday low near 22,215 around 2 PM. Buyers stepped in during the last hour, and the index recovered more than 200 points to close about 122 points below its opening level.

Broader markets fell with the index. Zerodha’s weekly data shows that global markets were also weak, with Japan the main exception. India VIX, which measures how much movement options traders expect, rose nearly 19% over the week. A higher VIX usually means larger daily swings, which is why the week felt rougher than the headline number suggests.

What pressed on markets: rupee, bond yields, oil and the dollar

Several pressures arrived together this week.

A softer rupee. The rupee fell 0.5% on Thursday to ₹96.315 per dollar, its weakest level in two months. Higher oil prices, rising global bond yields and foreign selling of Indian shares all weighed on it. State-run banks sold dollars to limit the slide.

Rising bond yields. India’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to its highest level in the past year. Abroad, the US 10-year yield reached 5.34%, a level last seen in 2002. France’s 10-year yield moved close to 5%, and Britain’s 30-year yield crossed 6%. When bonds pay more, shares have to compete harder for investor money, which is why yield spikes often coincide with equity selloffs.

Oil. Brent crude traded above $100 a barrel on Thursday after China suspended oil-product exports, adding to worries about tight fuel supply. India imports most of its crude, so higher prices affect the rupee, inflation and company costs. Zerodha’s weekly summary notes that crude and gold both ended the week lower overall.

A stronger dollar. The dollar index rose above 101.8, its highest since April 2025, on expectations of further US interest rate increases and resilient US activity.

Sector performance: who held up

Sector leadership remains mixed. Zerodha’s weekly summary lists Media, Pharma, Telecom and Healthcare as the sectors with continuing relative strength. Financial Services, Power and FMCG are improving. None of the three leading sectors from four weeks ago has kept its position, so the leaders keep rotating.

Auto stocks fell after September sales showed a slowdown from August’s strong numbers. Three of the five worst performers among stocks in the futures and options segment were auto names. No sector now trades above all four of the key moving averages that Zerodha tracks, which tells you how widespread the weakness has been.

FII and DII flows: foreign selling, domestic buying

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are overseas funds that invest in Indian markets. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) are Indian institutions such as mutual funds and insurers. This week they pulled in opposite directions.

• FIIs sold a net ₹29,424 crore of Indian equities.
• DIIs bought a net ₹33,455 crore.
• DIIs absorbed all of the foreign selling and had about ₹4,000 crore left over.

The same pattern shows up across the past four weeks. Mutual fund inflows, including monthly SIP contributions, form part of the domestic buying that cushions the market when foreign investors sell.

Zerodha’s participant data adds another detail. As of Thursday, FIIs held only about 8% of their index-futures positions on the long side. Retail and high-net-worth traders held about 84% long, close to their most bullish reading of the past year. The two groups are positioned on opposite sides, which is one reason daily moves can be sharp.

Market breadth and sentiment

Breadth measures how many stocks participate in a move. This week it was poor.

• On Thursday, 1,795 stocks declined against 499 advances.
• Only 17.2% of Nifty 500 stocks trade above their 50-day average.
• 52-week lows outnumbered 52-week highs by 54 to 3.
• None of the 1,075 liquid stocks Zerodha tracks closed at a 52-week high this week.

The Fear & Greed Index slipped from 21 to 16 and sits in extreme fear. The index combines several readings, including foreign positioning, market trends and the performance of bonds against equities. Sentiment readings describe the mood on a given day. They do not predict what comes next.

Companies in the news

The items below are reported news and market moves. They are not views or recommendations on any company.

• Bajaj Auto fell 7.62% on Thursday on trading volume about 6.7 times its usual level, after September data showed domestic sales down 12% from a year earlier. Mahindra & Mahindra slipped more than 3% even though its passenger vehicle sales rose 14% year on year.
• Hyundai reported its highest-ever monthly sales in September at 77,916 units, up 10.8% from a year ago.
• HDFC Bank appointed Anup Bagchi as MD and CEO after RBI approval. He takes charge on 27 October 2026 and succeeds Sashidhar Jagdishan, whose term ends on 26 October.
• Infosys extended its partnership with ABN AMRO on enterprise AI adoption. Its shares recovered after touching a 52-week low a day earlier.
• Schneider Electric gained 5.98% on heavy activity.
• NTPC reported Q2 power generation up 13% year on year to 117.9 billion units.
• Accenture (global) rose 22% after it signalled faster revenue growth. Its FY26 revenue grew 4% to $74.2 billion.

Economic data and policy updates

• Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.1 in September from 52.8 in August, a seven-month high, helped by stronger orders, output and hiring. The Q2 FY27 average of 53.8 is the weakest for the same quarter since 2021.
• GST collections crossed ₹2 lakh crore on a gross basis for the third month in a row. Net collections after refunds rose 18.1% year on year to over ₹1.76 lakh crore.
• SEBI gave NSE a no-objection certificate to launch futures linked to a corporate bond index, subject to RBI approval. The contracts would let investors hedge corporate bond exposure through an exchange-traded instrument.

What history says about weeks like this

Zerodha’s weekly report looked at past weeks that resembled this one. The Nifty now sits 7.3% below its 40-week average, and India VIX is higher than on 70% of days over the past year. Since 1 April 2022, there have been 36 weeks with a comparable mix of trend and volatility.

In those 36 weeks, the Nifty’s median return the following week was +0.33%, and it rose in 58% of them. The middle 80% of outcomes ranged from -2.63% to +2.81%. Over four weeks, the median was +1.05%, with 60% of instances positive.

Treat these numbers with care. They come from a short history of about four years, and the sample is small. They show how markets behaved after similar setups and do not forecast or guarantee future returns. Their main use is to remind you that sharp falls and sharp recoveries both appear in the record.

What to watch next week

• RBI policy decision. Rates, inflation commentary and the rupee are the main areas to follow.
• Nifty options expiry on 6 October. Options pricing implies a move of about 253 points either way. The implied range runs from roughly 22,209 to 22,715, with the heaviest put open interest at 22,000 and call open interest at 23,000.
• The 20-day moving average at 23,269. Market analysts watch this level as the first major trend marker above the current price.
• Earnings season. Results pick up pace, with TCS among the key reports.
• Global bond yields and oil. Both drove this week’s moves and remain in focus.

What this means for SIP investors

This section is general education and does not take your personal situation into account.

A Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) invests a fixed amount at regular intervals. When prices fall, the same amount buys more units. A simple example with made-up numbers: a ₹10,000 monthly SIP buys 100 units when the NAV is ₹100 and about 111 units when the NAV is ₹90. This arithmetic describes how SIPs work. It does not promise a result.

Short-window return figures swing with the market’s mood. One investor on an online forum this week described two years of SIPs moving from roughly a 21% annualised gain to a small loss in a few days. Apps usually show this number as XIRR, the annualised return that accounts for the dates of each instalment. Checking it in the middle of a sharp fall tells you little about whether your plan is working. Your goal, your time horizon and your ability to handle volatility say more.

Two practical notes:

• 2 October was a non-business day for all mutual fund schemes. SIP instalments falling on a non-business day are generally processed on the next business day. Check your scheme documents for specifics.
• Reviewing your asset allocation against your goals is a sensible habit at any time. Doing it during a stressful week works best with a clear head and a clear plan.

Frequently asked questions

Why did the Nifty fall this week?

Market reports point to several factors arriving together: heavy FII selling, weak September auto sales, a softer rupee, rising bond yields in India and abroad, and oil prices that stayed high. Markets rarely fall for one reason alone.

How many weeks in a row has the Nifty fallen?

Eight. This is the longest weekly losing streak in 25 years.

What do FII and DII mean?

FII stands for foreign institutional investor, meaning overseas funds investing in India. DII stands for domestic institutional investor, meaning Indian institutions such as mutual funds and insurers. This week FIIs were net sellers and DIIs were net buyers.

What is India VIX?

India VIX measures the market’s expected volatility over the near term, based on options prices. A rising VIX means traders expect bigger swings. It rose nearly 19% this week.

Should I stop my SIP when the market falls?

That depends on your goals, time horizon and risk comfort, so there is no single answer for everyone. Many investors keep SIPs running through falls because the plan is built around regular investing across market cycles. For a decision about your own money, speak with your mutual fund distributor or another qualified professional.

Where does this data come from?

The figures come from Zerodha’s Aftermarket Report (daily edition of 1 October 2026 and weekly edition of 3 October 2026), which draws on NSE, BSE and MCX data. Read the originals here: weekly edition and daily edition.

Talk to Artha Vridhi

Artha Vridhi helps salaried professionals in Bengaluru understand mutual funds, plan SIPs and keep their goals in view. If you have questions about your SIPs after a week like this one, message us on WhatsApp or visit www.arthavridhi.com.

Artha Vridhi · Where Purpose Meets Prosperity. Saikat Rakshit, AMFI-registered Mutual Fund Distributor (ARN-362803), Bengaluru.

This article is for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Company names appear only as part of reported market news and are not recommendations. Past performance and historical statistics do not guarantee future results.

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks. Please read all scheme-related documents carefully before investing.